The 18 Market Arcana
Each options market regime has its own personality or archetype (what we're calling arcana) that intuitively describes its unique brew of term-structure (or time-volatility), wing-skew (or strike price-volatility), and underlying trend.
Each arcanum presents its own dangers, opportunities, and possibilities. Let's get to know them.
A1-3: Harvest, North Wind, and Hunt
The Harvest arcanum is steady, reliable, and abundant. Price trends in a satisfying way, set against the backdrop of calm option supply and open possibility for the future.
North Wind is equally placid, but with a crisper, sharper edge coming into view. Expectation for movement becomes elevated but remains indecisive.
Hunt is also a quiet, directional path, but with asymmetrical sentiment lurking in either calls or puts.
A4-6: Hearth, Ghostlight, and Labyrinth
Hearth is warm, inviting, and cozy. Price is sleepy and still, with no apparent risk-attitude.
Ghostlight is where phantoms begin showing up over the stillness. Price is sleeping, to be sure, but something is moving out there, whatever it is.
The Labyrinth is confusing. It is far too quiet for what's happening under the surface. Sentiment is secretly alive; the market is haunted.
A7-9: Aurora, Narrows, and War Horn
In Aurora, the market is awake to events and activated by them. The sky is dancing with exploratory price action.
In the Narrows, participants find themselves moving with these activated trends, but with increased uncertainty along the way.
War Horn signals that options have become polarized. What was just a quiet trend is now an alliance marching forward.
A10-12: Constellation, Ritual, and Hex
The Constellation arcanum means the market is looking at headlines and "signs" but without a defined trajectory or much sentiment.
Ritual brings a subtle sense that price is somewhat charged. Participants are caught up in vague, swinging emotions and trying in vain to shape the future.
In Hex, the market has become swept up in omens and predictions, leaning to one side of options demand without structure to prove it yet.
A13-15: Galleon, Tempest, and Dragon
Galleon means that the market is adventurous enough to chart a course through what it sees as a turbulent future, but with no specific destination in mind.
When Tempest comes, price is trending in an environment of charged emotions and indecisive pressure.
In a Dragon market, fear and excitement have given way to a full-blown explosion of direction and sentiment.
A16-18: Alchemy, Crucible, and World-Eater
Alchemy is characterized by brewing, bubbling experimentation with no determined outcome.
Crucible features more chaotic churning with pressure building on both sides of price. Many are purged out of the market.
Finally, World-Eater signals that price is coiled and nuclear; something catastrophic is about to unfold.